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Election Simulator

Skip the opinion polls. Run your own election scenarios.

உங்கள் தேர்தல், உங்கள் கணிப்பு

தேர்தல் கருத்துக்கணிப்புகள் எதற்கு? முடிவுகளை நீங்களே ஆராயுங்கள்!

கடந்த முறை பதிவான வாக்குகள் இம்முறை யாருக்கு? களநிலவரங்களின் தாக்கம் என்னவாக இருக்கும்? உங்கள் உள்ளீடுகளுக்கு ஏற்ப மாறும் தேர்தல் முடிவுகளையும், வெற்றி வாய்ப்புகளையும் உடனுக்குடன் திரையில் பாருங்கள்.

இது, தேர்தல் களத்தின் சாத்தியக்கூறுகளை நீங்களே சோதித்துப் பார்க்கும் தனித்துவமான ஆய்வுக் கருவி!

வாக்கு

Current Elections in Tamil Nadu

Bypolls in two constituencies on October 6, counting on October 9. Pick one.

Choose a scenario

Start here: choose at least one scenario to see a projected result.

Swipe each row to see all 15 scenarios. Pick one scenario, or several to combine them. Or skip the scenarios and play with the voter flows and factors on your own. Flows and factors give you more control.

The candidate and alliances

Defection backlash

Anti-incumbency

Ruling party and young voters

Opposition consolidation

Neutral voters

What's switched on now

Nothing chosen yet, so there's no projection. Every April voter is assumed to vote the same way again until you choose a scenario above, or move voters and add factors yourself below.

Want more control? Build your own scenario:

Your scenario

Choose a scenario to see the result

There's no projection until you tell us what you think is happening on the ground. Nothing is assumed in advance.

1. Vote Swing

Where each party's April voters go now. It starts with everyone voting the same way as in April. Scenarios you choose move voters here, or tap Adjust on any row to move them yourself.

April AIADMK voters (69,284)Adjust

Staying with AIADMK: 100% (whatever is left over).

April TVK voters (62,090)Adjust

Staying with TVK: 100% (whatever is left over).

April DMK voters (59,838)Adjust

Staying with DMK: 100% (whatever is left over).

2. Factors

Tap any factor to switch it on, then pick the party it affects and how strong it is. Combine as many as you like.

Wave

A statewide mood for or against a party that lifts or sinks it everywhere.

Anti-incumbency

Frustration with the party in power. TVK now runs the state government.

Candidate factor

Voter anger at the TVK candidate for resigning and switching parties months after winning.

Social media

Online momentum. Kept small because online buzz overstates real votes in rural seats.

Campaign

Ground organisation, outreach, star campaigners and booth work.

Turnout

Bypolls usually draw fewer voters than a general election. When turnout falls, parties with stronger booth-level organisation tend to gain. Pick how far turnout falls and which party benefits.

Women voters

Women are about half of all voters, and welfare schemes and safety often shape how they vote. Pick which party women lean towards and how strongly.

Generations

How each age group leans. The shift inside a group is scaled by that group's share of voters.

Community consolidation

A share of voters consolidating behind a party as a bloc. No community is named or assumed.

Ground-level issues

Local concerns. Pick the party each issue affects, and whether it works for or against that party.

State-level issues

Statewide concerns. Pick the party each issue affects, and whether it works for or against that party.

Desire for change

Voters who want something different from what they have now.

Neutral voters

Undecided and floating voters who are not part of any party's core base, and which way they lean.

3. Last Election Results

April 2026 Assembly election, turnout 93.4%.

AIADMK
69,284 (35%)
TVK
62,090 (32%)
DMK
59,838 (30%)
NTK
4,950 (3%)
Others
731 (0%)
What has changed since April
  • Maragatham Kumaravel won here in April for AIADMK by 7,194 votes, then resigned and joined TVK.
  • She is now TVK's candidate. AIADMK has fielded former MLA Kanitha Sampath.
  • April was a close three-way race: AIADMK 35%, TVK 31%, DMK 30%.
  • Congress and MDMK now back TVK. CPI(M) and NTK are contesting on their own.

This is a scenario tool, not a forecast. There is no public polling for these seats, and every result follows from the choices you make. The model starts from each party's April 2026 votes, moves voters according to section 1, applies the factors in section 2 as shifts in vote share, then runs 3,000 simulations with random variation to estimate win chances.

Factor strengths (Mild, Moderate, Strong) and age-group shares are editable placeholders, not measured values.

என் தேர்தல் entherthal.com